Air transport forecasting and scenario analysis

Investment in airport infrastructure have one thing in common: a large degree of risk. While investment costs must be borne in the short run and are therefore relatively easy to estimate, revenues are spread over a much longer period of time, making them by definition uncertain. This is mainly due to the high degree of uncertainty regarding future growth in aviation demand. To limit investment risks, it is therefore important to forecast future aviation demand as accurately as possible.

The AviaDem forecasting model integrates airline network dynamics into the estimation of future aviation demand. As in most forecasting models, AviaDem uses economic growth scenarios to estimate demand, but adds scenarios for network dynamics. Such dynamics may include network strategies for airline alliances, open skies between states or (within) world regions etc. These dynamics may result in an uneven distribution of the aviation market over the various competitors in the market: airports and airlines. Hence, the market share of airports and airlines may change significantly, due to these network dynamics.

The AviaDem model has two main components. Firstly, future market size is estimated, using economic growth and trade scenarios to estimate passenger and cargo market size. Secondly, a route choice module estimates the market distribution between geographical regions. This growth is used to determine total future cargo and passenger demand for each combination of regions.

Since AviaDem uses economic and network scenarios, the model provides the client with more flexibility in defining future situations. The AviaDem forecasting model forecasts airport market demand more accurately than most other models, because it also takes airline network dynamics into account. This will allow airports, airlines and governments to make better informed decisions.

If you require more information about AviaDem or our other products, please contact Rogier Lieshout at +31 (0)20 525 1672, or at r.lieshout@seo.nl.

 expertise en onderzoeksgebieden  > Aviadem