The future of employment in the Amsterdam Metropolitan Region until 2016

It is expected that in the Amsterdam Metropolitan Region 53,000 jobs are created between now and 2016, that the workforce increases by 19,000 people and that the unemployment rate slowly decreases from 5.9 to 5.0 percent. These are the predictions for the region based on growth prospects for the Netherlands presented on Budget Day, september 2011.

The job growth is greatest in Amsterdam. Also South Kennemerland, the Gooi and Vecht, Waterland and Almere and Lelystad do well. Most jobs are created in business services, healthcare and welfare sector and the trade and repairs. Employment is decreasing in the sectors industry, transport, storage and communication and government.

Besides the rise in employment due to production growth in the coming years, many jobs will also become free because older workers retire. In total the labor market in the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area is in need of 153.000 employees the next four years. The labor market needs 40 000 academics, 43 000 HBO graduates and 55 000 MBO graduates. There is even demand for 18 thousand people without qualifications.

One could rightly be asked whether there will be enough people with the right qualifications in the Metropolitan Region. The calculations show that there are shortages of highly educated and MBO graduates in growth sectors such as business services and care even if all students who live in the region are on the labor market within the next four years.

The business services sector is a key sector in the Metropolitan Region. The sector is very diverse. Major subsectors within the business services are consultants, IT services and cleaning. Also the creative sector is part of the business services. Interestingly, the growth of employment in business services over the past decade focused on self-employed on the one hand and on large companies on the other.

Jules Theeuwes presented the results of the study during the New Year Symposium of the Dutch Chamber of Commerce. Watch the presentation here. The entire report is shown below. Both are written in Dutch.