Update of the Regional labor market figures and forecasts 2011

This report provides an update of the labor market figures and forecasts in the Labour Market and Education Monitor 2009 commissioned by the Province of North Holland. This update includes current insights on the labor market: the creation of jobs and the number of residents of North-Holland, and revised forecasts for the short and medium term based on current figures. As a starting point we take the CPB forecasts for the growth of the entire Dutch economy (GDP growth in 2010: 1.75 percent, 1.5 percent in 2011). The CPB estimates are translated into provincial and sectoral levels with a model developed by SEO Economic Research.

It is not surprising that the recession is the theme of this Monitor. North Holland came through quite good, which is mainly due to the sector structure of the province. The recession has particularly affected the manufacturing industry and construction, two sectors with a lower share in total employment in North Holland than in the rest of the Dutch economy. In terms of production volume the blow fell in 2009. For the first time in a very long time there was a decline. Compared to the national figure it is a modest decline. The production has returned to positive growth in 2010, but the growth rates are lower than in the period 2004-2008.

The labor market has a delayed reaction on changes in production. Where in 2009 the number of jobs was still increasing, the labor market was hit hard in 2010. Again, the contraction was of short duration. Since 2011, the number of jobs increases again, but much less rapidly than the production volume. Until 2015, the number of jobs in most regions of North Holland increase at a lower rate than the labor force. Then, the tide turns, and the number of jobs is growing faster than the labor force. The shortage on the labor market in the period between 2003 and 2008, was temporarily put to an end by the crisis. De shortage will be back in 2015.