2012 update on North Holland's Regional Labour Market Figures and Forecasts

This report updates the labour market figures and forecasts for the Labour Market and Education Monitor, which has been published by the Province of North Holland since 2009. The Monitor provides information on the labour market in the Province of North Holland, including current numbers of jobs and residents, and adjusted forecasts for the short (2012-2015) and medium (2016-2020) term, based on up-to-date figures. These forecasts are based on recent forecasts by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) of growth in the Dutch economy as a whole. The CPB estimates were translated into sector-specific, provincial and regional figures using a model developed by SEO Economic Research.

While the 2009 recession did affect jobs growth in North Holland from 2009 onwards, the most significant impact on employment did not occur until 2011. It takes about six months to a year on average for a change in companies’ output to be reflected in a change in the demand for labour. Job growth appears to have recovered in 2012, but the second dip in output that year is soon expected to cause a second fall in the number of jobs in 2013. A more structural recovery in the number of jobs is not expected until 2014 and thereafter.

On balance, the number of jobs in the Province of North Holland is expected to grow faster than the size of the working population up to 2015. While the labour market will continue to expand that year and the following year as a result of low or even negative job growth, from 2014 job growth will be higher than the growth in the size of the working population, and this trend will continue after 2015. Although growth in the number of jobs will be lower than in the recent past, growth in the working population will be virtually zero, making the North Holland labour market tighter overall.