Evaluation of the Private Seed Sector Development (PSSD) programme in Burundi

Background
SEO and MDF were commissioned by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands (EKN) in Burundi to assess the impact of its Private Seed Sector Development (PSSD) programme. This programme was implemented during 2017-2023 by the International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) and was funded by the Embassy. The primary goal of the programme was to elevate and transform the private seed value chain in Burundi, ensuring that farmers gain improved access to high-quality, certified seeds, thereby significantly enhancing their productivity and incomes.

Key findings
The evaluation team found robust empirical evidence that the PSSD programme led to a substantial increase in the adoption of certified seeds, with corresponding improvements in productivity and income among adopting households. Seed entrepreneurs reported improved access to buyers and attributed their financial success to the PSSD programme. The field days, demonstration plots, and training provided by IFDC were seen as the most effective aspects of the programme.

Despite these positive outcomes, SEO and MDF identified several value chain bottlenecks that still constrained adoption of certified seeds:

• Demand-side bottlenecks: While the programme’s efforts to inform farmers about the benefits of certified seeds showed promise (in that farmers appeared convinced that using certified seeds was a beneficial investment), financial access constraints and high seed costs remained significant barriers to the adoption of certified seeds by smallholder farmers.
• Supply-side bottlenecks: Remaining supply-side challenges included limited production capacity for early generation seeds, underdeveloped certification capabilities, and limited coordination with other donor-funded seed distribution initiatives. These factors constrained the production of certified seeds and increased the costs for seed entrepreneurs, simultaneously diminishing their revenues. Consequently, the sustainability of seed entrepreneurs’ operations was at risk, highlighting the need for enhanced coordination and support mechanisms.

The main recommendations for IFDC and the Netherlands Embassy (EKN) included:

• Enhance coordination among development partners: To enhance the sustainability of the private seed sector, EKN could help align development partners’ activities with PSD objectives, especially regarding the distribution of free or subsidised seeds by donors that may undercut local seed markets. Specifically, EKN could do more to encourage external partners to purchase seeds from local entrepreneurs and to distribute vouchers or cash transfers to farmer households, so that they themselves gain experience with purchasing certified seeds from local entrepreneurs.
• Improve varietal development, strengthen production of early generation seeds, and strengthen certification processes: IFDC could strengthen support for expanding testing capabilities, enhancing seed certification processes, and assisting seed entrepreneurs in scaling up their operations. This should include improving access to vital inputs and contemporary equipment, in addition to enlarging storage capacities.
• Boost agricultural productivity and resilience for seed entrepreneurs: IFDC can enhance cofinancing for producing and storing various seeds, and improve storage facilities to guard against climate risks. By funding advanced machinery and irrigation technologies, IFDC can help seed entrepreneurs quickly boost high-quality seed production year-round. Also, investing in training for cultivating first-generation seeds and using hothouses can help to increase the seed supply chain’s sustainability and market adaptability.
• Improve access to finance: IFDC could usefully explore options to form partnerships with financial institutions to enhance access to finance for seed entrepreneurs and farmers. An alternative option is to set up a new revolving fund together with private investors, focused on catalysing sustainable finance by leveraging initial capital for multiple lending rounds. This strategy requires setting clear criteria for loan recipients, investing in financial literacy, and designing adaptable loan conditions to ensure long-term viability and impact.

Methods
This evaluation of the PSSD programme employed a mixed-methods approach, integrating both quantitative and qualitative analyses to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the programme’s impact on the demand side (smallholder farmers) as well as the supply side (seed entrepreneurs).

Quantitative Analysis:

• A large survey involving 1,755 smallholder farmers, conducted as part of a quasi-experimental design. This involved analysing survey data from a ’treatment group’, consisting of smallholder farmers living in 39 ‘treatment regions’ that were exposed to the PSSD programme, and a comparable ‘control group’ of farmers living in 39 ‘control regions’ that were not (or much less) exposed to PSSD.
• A survey among 48 seed entrepreneurs to identify their experienced bottlenecks on the supply-side, their perceptions of demand-side bottlenecks, as well as the overall effectiveness of the PSSD programme.

Qualitative Analysis:

• 32 interviews with key stakeholders involved in the programme, including implementing partners, development agencies, organisations contributing to an enabling environment, private sector companies, and local NGOs
• 20 focus group discussions (FGDs) with smallholder farmers who participated in the PSSD programme, aimed at understanding their experiences, their challenges, and their perceptions of the programme.
• 4 FGDs with seed entrepreneurs involved in the programme, focusing on the impact of PSSD on their business operations and the broader seed sector.
• Desk study of 45 key documents including internal documents from the PSSD programme as well as external publications from organisations like FAO, TASAI, IFAD, KIT, and AfDB.